Gold oversupply 152 tons in Q2, near term strategy Bullish: Barclays
Gold ETP holdings rose last week by 4.1 tonnes. However, metal held in trust is down 20.2 tonnes so far in August, bringing year-to-date net outflows to around 665 tonnes so far this year. The distribution of outflows in August has been global, but largely has been concentrated in North American listed products.
Photo Courtesy: BigStockPhoto.com
Gold market was oversupplied to the extent of 152 tons in Q2 2013 and 217 tons in H2 2013 but the yellow metal faces some downside pressure unless strong physical demand emerges to ffset ETF disinvestments, according to Barclays.
Price foreast for Q3, 2013: $1200/oz, 2013
According to Barclays, the macro environment remains neutral while investor inflows are bearish. Recent developments in Eruozone area including growth in industrial production, French and German GDP surprises, expansion in UK environment and Barclays expects tapering activities to start by September despite the mixed economic data from USA.
Gold ETP holdings rose last week by 4.1 tonnes. However, metal held in trust is down 20.2 tonnes so far in August, bringing year-to-date net outflows to around 665 tonnes so far this year. The distribution of outflows in August has been global, but largely has been concentrated in North American listed products.
The latest CFTC data for the week ending 13 August showed that net positioning rose for a second week, this time by 2.3k lots. Short covering outweighed a fall in long positioning, as short positioning fell by 7.6k lots and longs fell by 5.3k lots. While short positioning remains elevated, therefore leaving scope for further short covering activity, a change in market perception toward Fed tapering or weaker-than-expected data could trigger the re-establishment of short positioning, possibly exacerbating the downside for gold.
According to the latest data from the US Mint, US gold coin sales have reached 7koz so far in August, a weak run rate compared with months prior, and furthering the slowing trend we have seen since coin sales hit a peak in April of 246.5koz. So far this year, 866.5koz of gold coins have been sold from the US Mint, versus 841koz in all of last year.
The bearish equity sector rotation and weakening internals, coupled with a poor seasonal corridor for risk into early October, is symbiotically reacting with offered rates and a bid US dollar. In turn, this is lifting precious metals with silver having its best week since 2011. Keep an upside focus as the impulsive ascent continues. The consistency lies in the Mint Ratio, which topped out in late July (before equities rolled lower) and is breaking down hard, suggesting further silver outperformance over gold.
Sumber : Google
No comments:
Post a Comment