27 September 2013
26 September 2013
25 September 2013
24 September 2013
23 September 2013
22 September 2013
Berita Semasa 22 September 2013 ...
Gold may get support on US debt ceiling, Middle East issue: ETFS
Among the precious metals, palladium has the highest industrial demand exposure at nearly 80%, and thus stands in a particularly strong position to benefit as the global economy improves.
Gold under pressure as Syria military attack averted and investors focus on possible Fed tapering. Precious metals declined last week as concerns about an imminent attack on Syria by the US abated and investors continued to focus on the possible announcement of a reduction in Fed bond buying this week, according to a weekly review by ETF Securities Ltd (ETFS).
Palladium was the only precious metal to hold up, as improving global economic conditions and continued strong auto sales lend support. In our view, once the market has put FOMC tapering clarification in the rear view mirror, the focus will likely focus on other issues. Some of these issues include the need to raise the US debt ceiling in the next month or so or face government shut-down, continued upheaval in the Middle East and the Fed’s need to keep bond yield increases in check given its large debt servicing burden. All of these factors should be gold price supportive. On top of these factors, China and central bank physical gold demand remains robust and gold jewellery recycling has dropped sharply, tightening the physical supply-demand balance (as reflected in low to negative gold forward rates). These factors should help to keep a floor on the gold price.
And any sign of slower growth in the US or of Fed dovishness in the coming months has the potential to push the gold price higher. A key potential beneficiary of a stable gold price and rising industrial growth is silver. Platinum and palladium back in focus as industrial cycle turn up. Palladium bucked the bearish precious metals trend, showing a modest gain last week. The fundamentals of palladium remain positive in our view with rising vehicle sales in the US and China combined with constrained supply expected to keep the metal in supply deficit this year and next. ETFS report said.
Among the precious metals, palladium has the highest industrial demand exposure at nearly 80%, and thus stands in a particularly strong position to benefit as the global economy improves. Catalytic converters are the primary source of demand, notably for gasoline engines.
Emerging market demand, coupled with tightening emission regulations are expected to help sustain an excess of demand over supply through 2014 (see chart on the following page). Platinum has also gained some favor recently due to the recovery in Europe. Platinum tends to be used more in diesel vehicles and Europe is the world’s largest market for diesel passenger cars.
Platinum and palladium are among the few commodities in supply deficit. Palladium is the same price as November 2010, yet cumulative 12-month vehicle sales have increased about 17% since then. Platinum is the same price as November 2007,despite the fact that cumulative vehicle sales have increased about 30% (see chart below). Absent a shift lower in global vehicle sales, the outlook for platinum and palladium appears quite favourable in our view, ETFS report added.
Key events to watch this week
The FOMC statement on the 18th and potential reduction in the bond buying program will likely be the focus this week. Renewed tensions in Syria would raise attention as may the approaching US budget debate. Data will likely take a back seat, with industrial production and CPI in the US prominent. In the EU, CPI and vehicle registrations should be highlights.
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21 September 2013
Berita Semasa 21 September 2013 ...
Gold exploration budgets zoom, but not enough new discoveries: SNL MEG
As SNL MEG data shows, from 1998-2012, gold explorers found 107 major gold deposits, averaging 7.5 million ounces each, in 36 different countries, adding 800.8 million ounces of gold to global reserves and resources  56% of the 1.2 billion ounces of gold produced during the period, after allowing for conversion of resources to reserves and recovery losses.
Mining companies are spending more money on exploration but new gold discoveries are falling short of replacing global production, according to a new study by SNL Metals Economics Group.
The study titled, "Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement 2013-Update," gold exploration budgets have reached an all time high of US $6 bn in 2012 while average cost of discovery between 1990-97 was US $94.4 mn. Driven by rising gold prices, exploration budgets have zoomed 31% annually form 2003-2012, with the exception of dip in 2009.
As SNL MEG data shows, from 1998-2012, gold explorers found 107 major gold deposits, averaging 7.5 million ounces each, in 36 different countries, adding 800.8 million ounces of gold to global reserves and resources — 56% of the 1.2 billion ounces of gold produced during the period, after allowing for conversion of resources to reserves and recovery losses.
Regionally, about 23% of the 800.8 million ounces of discovered gold was in North America at a discovery-oriented exploration cost of US$49/oz; 21% in Latin America at about US$49/oz; 19% in Africa at US$33/oz; 10% in Europe at US$13/oz; 8% in Australia at US$61/oz; 8% in Pacific Ocean Islands at US$30/oz; 6% in former Soviet Union countries at US$33/oz; 2% in other Asian countries at US$75/oz; and 2% in the Middle East at US$10/oz. Greenfields discoveries accounted for 67% of the gold found, while brownfields discoveries made up 33% of the total.
In addition to falling short of replacing mine production over the period, the amount of discovered resources that will reach production will inevitably be reduced due to factors affecting their economic viability such as location, politics, market conditions, and capital and operating costs. Given the increasing cost to replace production from major discoveries from 1998-2009, it remains to be seen how recent exploration efforts will translate into new and expanded discoveries in the 2010-2012 period.
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20 September 2013
Berita Semasa 20 September 2013 ...
Gold could climb back to $1500, Silver to $26 as Fed taper threat goes
US Gold futures for December delivery shot up by $60 to $1360 an ounce while Silver futures for December delivery shot up to $23.015 levels. According to Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Strategest at Commodity Online Group, who had earlier forecasted $1500 gold by December 2013, precious metals is at the beginning of the strong demand cycle from September to January and market had taken a beating on speculation that Fed may announce tapering measures
US Gold futures and spot gold now stand a better chance to reach $1500 per ounce while silver prices could rise to $26 by year end as US Federal Reserve has indicated that it is not implementing tapering of stimulus as expected by September.
US Gold futures for December delivery shot up by $60 to $1360 an ounce while Silver futures for December delivery shot up to $23.015 levels. According to Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Strategest at Commodity Online Group (India's leading commodity-equity trading services group), who had earlier forecasted $1500 gold by December 2013, precious metals is at the beginning of the strong demand cycle from September to January and market had taken a beating on speculation that Fed may announce tapering measures.
"This could eventually take gold near to $1500 levels aided by a weaker dollar and safe haven buying as continued stimulus measures will be inflationary," Sreekumar Raghavan said. Silver is backed by sufficient industrial demand and hence could move upwards of $26, he added.
Fed surprised everyone on Wednesday by postponing tapering measures and revising downwards the outlook on US economy from 2.3% GDP growth to 2% and this caused US dollar to fall to a seven month low against major currencies. Gold soared 4%.
Reuters quoting some economists said that winddown of stimulus measures may not start until present Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's term ends in January. And it could be left to his successor to try out such measures. Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen is the front runner for the job.
It may be recalled that a few days ago HSBC Global Research had revised its gold outlook for 2013 from $1396 per ounce to $1446/Oz in view of strong Asian demand. China demnad for gold jewelry, coins and bars had shot up recently while India is entering a seasonally strong demand period amidst a steep hike in customs duty on gold and silver to 10% and jewelry duty from 10 to 15%.
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19 September 2013
18 September 2013
17 September 2013
Berita Semasa 17 September 2013 ...
Silver market outlook from Dr Jeffrey Lewis
Bullish Scenarios for Silver Prices A number of bullish scenarios exist that could substantially increase the price of silver if they were to materialize.
Image Courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.net
One of the most often asked questions by those interested in investing in silver pertains to not only how low, but how high silver’s price can go. The range is anywhere from a paper price of zero, given the role of the bullion banks in the decades long silver market price suppression conspiracy, to infinity in the event of a U.S. Dollar hyperinflationary scenario.
Fair warning should be given that any discussion of price assumes that it is expressed in terms of a fiat currency or forced legal tender. Of course, the ultimate measure of silver’s value is instead its purchasing power, although this value is much murkier and more difficult to compute given that investors are currently living in an age of faith based fiat currency.
Bullish Scenarios for Silver Prices A number of bullish scenarios exist that could substantially increase the price of silver if they were to materialize. They include the following: When Physical Shortages Spike Premiums - Retail scarcity of silver could ignite physical premiums, thereby completely detaching the physical price from whatever paper price is being printed by the CFTC 'regulated' markets.
If Price is Determined Outside of the United States - Physical demand would prevail once again and would very likely cause the price of silver to overshoot its inflation adjusted highs. Without a Concentrated Short - A silver market that trades freely based on the amount of available investment grade silver would likely overshoot anything currently considered reasonable in terms of price.
The Historic Gold-Silver Price Ratio – This measure has typically traded between 10 and 20 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold, rather than the currently observed value in excess of 60 to 1. This historical price ratio range roughly parallels the mining ratio of 9 to 1. Gold to Silver Investment Ratio Inverted - Using the above ground investment grade 1000 ounce bar form, the gold to silver ratio reverses, thereby potentially making silver more valuable than gold since silver is rarer in its investment form.
Technical Analysis
Fairly conservative technicians currently seem to expect $100 to trade after a $50 breach, although a correction to test the base at $50 could then materialize. Revised CPI Measures – When the price of silver is inflation adjusted from its historic highs using the old CPI measure, people like John Williams have been quoted saying it should be as high as $500 per ounce.
Using Money Supply – Given the rapid expansion of the money supply since the gold standard was most recently abandoned in 1971, which has accelerated even further after the 2008 financial crisis, analysts like James Rickards have pointed out that a price of $7,000 to $10,000 for an ounce of gold would make more sense. Using the historically reasonable 20 to 1 price ratio, this analysis would put the price of silver in the $350 to $500 per ounce range. Alternatives to Paper Money - Gold and especially silver may not achieve official currency status any time soon, but they are the best candidates for unofficial non-fiat money that investors can readily purchase.
Financial Repression - Current monetary policy continues with low interest rates, captured bond buyers and real (as of yet absent) growth priced in forced legal tender. Hyperinflation to Quadrillions of Dollars per Ounce
Unbacked fiat currency money printing is running rampant under the flimsy guise of quantitative easing. Silver investors have all heard quadrillions associated with derivatives for a few years now. The BIS changed their calculation in 2009, making the amount of outstanding OTC derivatives smaller by approximately 500 trillion. Also, the market has long known that the Abe regime in Japan will soon pass the 15 zeros of debt mark, if they have not already done so. The devil is in the details and in this case the hyperinflationary details remain firmly entrenched in a cacophony of noise and distraction.
For more articles like this, including thoughtful precious metals analysis beyond the mainstream propaganda and basically everything you need to know about silver short of outlandish price predictions
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16 September 2013
Berita Semasa 16 September 2013 ...
Modest Fed tapering will be beneficial for Gold: ETFS
Precious metals came under pressure last week as the Syria premium receded and stock markets recovered on the back of generally better than expected economic data.
Image Courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.net
A modest tapering US Fed bond buying activity from September may prove beneficial for precious metals as they remain well-bid, with Fed's policy stance remaining extremely accomodative and geo-political uncertainty lingering, according to a weekly report by ETF Securities Ltd.
Precious metals came under pressure last week as the Syria premium receded and stock markets recovered on the back of generally better than expected economic data. However, following weaker than expected US unemployment data on Friday precious metals prices rebounded. August US unemployment was consistent with the July figure, indicating stagnating employment growth.
Despite a decline in the unemployment rate to 7.3%, the labor participation rate declined to 63.2%, the lowest since 1978 and non-farm payrolls remain disappointing. In addition, with the US expected to hit its budget ceiling by mid-October, concern surrounding policy relating to US debt may also help support the gold price. In the background, China’s demand for physical gold continues unabated, with demand well ahead of 2012 levels and well on track to hit a record amount in 2013 .
Modest tapering likely to be precious metals supportive. While Fed bond buying is likely to begin to be “tapered” this month, the continued sluggishness of
the improvement in the underlying US employment situation is likely to make any reductions in Fed bond buying extremely modest initially. . With no evidence of inflationary pressure yet, the gold price has wilted in 2013 in the face of higher real interest rates, as expectations of Fed tapering have escalated. However, any dovishness on the Fed’s part next week could see a sharp unwinding of expectations, reversing the rise in yields and in turn giving a boost to gold (and silver by association). In addition, inflation expectations also need to be watched, with the decline of recent months likely to reverse if the US economic and credit recovery continues. Any declines in real rates would add impetus to a gold price rally.
Palladium price falls despite strongest US auto sales since 2007 Palladium was the worst performing precious metal last week, declining 3.9% despite the strongest US auto sales since November of 2007. New restrictions in China on the number of cars on the road and some thawing of labor issues in South Africa can be attributed to last week’s decline, but the underlying fundamentals of declining production, improving economic data, particularly in Europe and increasing emissions regulations remain supportive factors for PGM prices in our view.
Platinum and palladium are among the few commodities in supply/demand deficit.
Key events to watch this week
Choppy trading is likely to pervade financial markets this week, with relatively little on the economic calendar front compared to last week. All eyes will be watching the Syrian crisis, while comments from US central bankers are likely to be closely scrutinised ahead of next week’s FOMCmeeting. On the data front, PPI and retail sales in the US on Friday are likely to be the highlights. Industrial production in the EC, China and Japan are likely to be a focus in addition to GDP in Japan and retail sales in China.
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15 September 2013
Berita Semasa 15 September 2013 ...
News Update: Gold Fields under US SEC investigation, expect Gold to fall on Fed taper
Analysts have turned gloomy on gold outlook as US Fed goes ahead and begins tapering of its securities purchases. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Societe Generale SA, Citigroup Inc are among those who expect lower gold prices in 2014 while JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corp are among those who expect bottoming out of gold on robust demand.
Image courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.net
South Africa's second biggest gold producer by revenue, Gold Fields is being investigated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (US SEC) over a $120 mn black emplowerment deal involving a senior member of the ruling party, Reuters reported.
The proble involves a 2010 deal and the granting of a mining licence for its South Deep mine near Johannesburg.The 2.1 billion rand ($210 million) transaction saw Gold Fields give a 9 percent stake in South Deep to a group of black investors to meet government targets for black economic empowerment (BEE), including black ownership. The ruling African National Congress has championed BEE to redress the inequalities left by white-minority rule, which ended in 1994.
The South Deep deal has come under particular scrutiny because the beneficiaries include ANC chairwoman Baleka Mbete, as well as relatives of anti-apartheid heroes including Nelson Mandela, Reuters report added.
Gold outlook gloomy on likely Fed tapering
Analysts have turned gloomy on gold outlook as US Fed goes ahead and begins tapering of its securities purchases. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Societe Generale SA, Citigroup Inc are among those who expect lower gold prices in 2014 while JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corp are among those who expect bottoming out of gold on robust demand.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg quoting analysts said that next week’s FOMC meeting would represent the first step in a tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy. An increase in interest rates, or even the promise of increased interest rates demonstrated by tapering bond purchases, would depress gold prices because “rates represent opportunity costs of holding gold,” wrote BofAML metals strategist Michael Widmer in a note. The Fed currently buys $85 billion in mortgage and Treasury debt each month.
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14 September 2013
Berita Semasa 14 September 2013 ...
Gold bears gain upper hand on easing Syria tensions, Fed tapering
While gold and platinum seemed to ignore the prospect of further government involvement in the Zimbabwe mining sector, it also seems as if the South African mining sector has remained calm in the wake of wage settlement news.
Image courtesy of BigStockPhoto.com
Market remains uncertain as analysts are figuring out who is having an upper hand, the bears or the bulls although gold appears weak and has fallen to the lowest level in three weeks. With possibility of military stirke on Syria waning and expectations of US Fed tapering of bond buying, US Gold futures have eased to $1356.8 per ounce on Thursday trading.
Most analysts now predict a weaker gold price for 2014 as safe haven appeal has eroded and recovery signs in US and other markets pushes up dollar and equities.
Meanwhile, a CME Group report said:
The bear camp will trumpet the fact that December gold initially managed another lower low on the charts. However, the bull camp will suggest that the market didn't show much interest in extending the downside breakout on the charts and the bear camp might also point out that the decline in gold prices over the last two weeks was forged on falling volume and declining open interest and that in turn isn't a ringing endorsement of the bear case.
While gold and platinum seemed to ignore the prospect of further government involvement in the Zimbabwe mining sector, it also seems as if the South African mining sector has remained calm in the wake of wage settlement news. At times today gold was weaker relative to the rest of the metals complex and at times today it seemed as if gold was being pressured by lingering tapering fears. Some outside markets today acted like the prospect of US tapering next week was declining but the gold trade didn't seem to be overly interested in that line of thinking.
Reuters update:
-Diplomatic efforts toward placing Syria's chemical weapons under international control intensified on Wednesday and U.N. investigators concluded Syrian government forces were almost certainly responsible for two May massacres that killed up to 450 civilians in the bloody civil war.
-Gold demand in India, the world's top consumer of the precious metal, improved on Wednesday as prices fell to their lowest in three weeks following losses in the world market and on a strong rupee.
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13 September 2013
10 September 2013
Berita Semasa 10 September 2013 ...
Gold, Silver, miners look attractive on bullish signals
Gold, silver and miners are likely to witness consolidation as traders are waiting for signals from the FOMC meet this month. After FOMC meet, metals and miners (GDX) may rally amidst Middle East tensions and unlikely Fed tapering.
Image courtesy of FreeDigitalphotos.net
Gold, silver and precious metals miners look attractive for investors on bullish signals emanating from daily charts.
He points out in an elaborate analysis that he was among the first to alert investors about the current rally in gold and gold stocks long time back. However, Handwerger warns that some of the short term technical indicators are overbought for gold and silver miners. Therefore, invesotrs need to be prepared to use consolidation as buying opportunity.
Gold, silver and miners are likely to witness consolidation as traders are waiting for signals from the FOMC meet this month. After FOMC meet, metals and miners (GDX) may rally amidst Middle East tensions and unlikely Fed tapering.
"Gold is overbought, reaching resistance at $1425, a short term pull back to 20 day ($1353) or 50-day ($1310) which are now both rising and making a bullish crossover for the first time in many months may be a healthy and provide a secondary buying point," Jeb Handwerger said.
The Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) may be on the throes of a potential breakout and long term bullish reversal. Silver is outperforming and charts signal a rally similar to 2010 when prices moved swiftly form $18 to $50.
Investors could also consider investing in Silver miners (SIL).
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9 September 2013
Berita Semasa 09 September 2013 ...
Ascenta Bullion Plus grows 7.30% in Aug as mining stocks rally
Ascenta Bullion Fund was able to post gains onthe strength of its stock holdings in Barrick Gold, Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti and Goldcorp. AngloGold and GoldCorp have been trading above their 50-day moving averages offlate.
Image courtesy of BigStockPhoto.com
After a difficult first half for both physical gold and mining stocks, the second half of 2013 has already witnessed a turnaround in the industry which in turn has benefitted Ascenta Bullion Plus Fund whose value has grown 7.30% in August, according to Alan Manzie, Investment Advisor for the fund.
Ascenta Bullion Fund was able to post gains onthe strength of its stock holdings in Barrick Gold NYSE:ABX), Newmont, (NYSE: NEM) AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) and Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) AngloGold and GoldCorp have been trading above their 50-day moving averages offlate.
All these stocks are off from their recent highs but still in positive territory. ABX is down from high of $21.20 per share to $19.41, NEM is down from high of $34.27 tl $31.62, GG is down to $30.03 from recent high of $32.15, AU is down to 13.63 from high of $15.12/share.
Alan Manzie said that first half of 2013 was difficult for the mining industry as they had to account for increased taxes in various regions, increased labour costs,exploration costs and decreasing precious metal prices that led to huge write downs and in turn affected the value of holdings held by Ascenta Bullion Plus Fund.However, despite the sharp decline, followed by a turnaround in mid-2013 and subsequent market recovery, Ascent Fund was patient with its investments collecting dividies and raising its cash component ot 12%.
Fresh investmentsNow Ascenta Fund's cash holdings have fallen to 5% on new equity investments in Franco Nevada (NasdaqGS: FRAN), Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) and additional investments in Barrick Gold. SLW is down form high of $29.17 to $26.13 per share while FRAN is down to $17.79 from high of 24..59.
"All our companies have significant production with the potential to add to reserves in the coming years. Debt levels are manageable and declining, management teams are experienced and capable. Most of the businesses are in the business friendly environment."
"We plan to avoid the exploration and development companies as the risks are high and window for financing these ventures is closing or has closed," Alan Manzie said.
Going ahead, Ascenta Bullion Plus Fund will outperform other sectors as gold prices are set to remain positive on growth in money supply in Japan and China and elsewhere despite talk of US Fed tapering to happen soon. This coupled with tensions in the Middle East continue to benefit precious metals, he added.
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8 September 2013
Berita Semasa 08 September 2013 ...
News update:Protest in Romania over new Gold mine,strike hits 17 mines in Africa
Reuters reported that the strike in gold mines which began on Tuesday has impacted operations at 17 of the 23 mines where wage negotiations are still taking place. According to Chamber of Mines negotiating on behalf of the industry, operations in these mines were partially or severely affected
Image courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.com
The Romanian government is facing stiff opposition as it moves ahead with its proposal to start an open-castgold mine in Carpathian town of Roia Montana. A new bill to be passed in Parliament will allow Canadian Gabriel Resources Ltd to mine 314 tons of gold and 1500 tons of silver thorugh its local arm and protestors said that government is flouting all rules to favour a foreign company.
South Africa mine strike:
Reuters reported that the strike in gold mines which began on Tuesday has impacted operations at 17 of the 23 mines where wage negotiations are still taking place. According to Chamber of Mines negotiating on behalf of the industry, operations in these mines were partially or severely affected. National Union of Mine Workers (NUM) seem to have lowered its wage hike demands setting the stage for a possible compromise and curtailing of indefinite strike. The unions had demanded a hike of upto 60% for mine workers while the managements were willing to give up to 6% wage rise.
Bountiful monsoon in India and gold demand:
Bountiful monsoon in India may raise the demand for gold while the government is taking all steps to curb its imports and consumption.Weakness in Rupee has caused a rally in gold prices in India with the impending festival demand giving an added boost. Even as government claims to have curbed gold imports by effecting a hike in import duty to 10% recently, gold smuggling is reportedly climbing up. World Gold Council suggests India's gold demand - not too different from imports - could be over 70 tonnes a month in the second half, hitting a record 1,000 tonnes for the full year to match China.
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7 September 2013
Berita Semasa 7 September 2013 ...
Concern over rising cash costs in gold mining in South Africa
With more companies adopting the World Gold Council's new all-in sustaining cost measure, which incorporates costs related to sustaining production over the life of a mine, it could result in reporting of higher costs on the balance sheet.
Gold mining cash costs are expected to increase in 2013 especially in South Africa due to several factors includding labour and power costs that make upto 15% and 49% respectively, according to Barclays Research.
With more companies adopting the World Gold Council's new all-in sustaining cost measure, which incorporates costs related to sustaining production over the life of a mine, it could result in reporting of higher costs on the balance sheet. The all-in sustaining costs includes cost for exploration and studies, capitalised stripping, underground development, and sustaining capital expenditure.
"For example, at IAMGOLD, the eighth-largest producer,Q2 13 all-in sustaining costs were 50% higher than total cash costs ($393/oz); at Kinross,the seventh-largest producer, the difference was more than 60% ($335/oz). Although higher, all-in sustaining costs are still below gold’s $1400/oz level seen this week, but the margin for cash cost increases continues to narrow as cash costs climb q/q. It is especiallyimportant to watch South African production assuming all-in sustaining costs are similar," according to Barclays.
South Africa remains the highest-cost producer of gold with marginal cash costs rising 5% to $1124/Oz in Q2, 2013.
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6 September 2013
Berita Semasa 6 September 2013 ...
The eternal love for Gold
People cling on to anything precious-relationships are precious, that's the reason why we mourn the death of our beloved ones. When it comes to gold, it has held a fascination for people since ancient times because it's so precious that it costs a lot of money to extract one additional ounce of gold from underneath which the likes of Anglogold, Barrick Gold, Harmony Gold and others are realising now when the market turned bearish.
Interior of Vatican Museum-Image courtesy of Photoholic at FreeDigital Photos.net
Shah Jehan tells his eldest daughter at the site of Taj Mahal where construction of a monument that was to become one of the seven wonders of the world was on: "Love, Sahanara, is more precious than gold. It should above all things be pursued." (Courtesy: John Shors: Beneath a Marble Sky, A Novel of the Taj (Rupa Publishers, India, 2013).
What if that eternal love is for gold? Have we understood the man's real fascination for gold which transcends cultural, geographical and economic barriers? One analyst recently said, excessive love for gold had led to the ruin of Greek, Roman civilisation and now the Indian economy that forces rulers to tell their subjects to stop investing in this commodity and sell their gold so that less dollar is needed to import them.
People cling on to anything precious-relationships are precious, that's the reason why we mourn the death of our beloved ones. When it comes to gold, it has held a fascination for people since ancient times because it's so precious that it costs a lot of money to extract one additional ounce of gold from underneath which the likes of Anglogold, Barrick Gold, Harmony Gold and others are realising now when the market turned bearish.
Barclays recently released a new pricing model for gold and they have admitted several times that the yellow metal is a complex commodity to understand from a market perspective. Remember, this has come from a financial institution which has understood asset values and how to profit from them much better than anyone else in the world.
It is this mystery about the precious metal, the complexity associated with and the myths surrounding it that attracts me to this asset ofcourse not to forget the beauty of it. My quest to understand gold better is taking me back to ancient civilisations from Indus Valley to Greek, and Roman civilisations with the help of some excellent books already available.
Homer has described Mycenae(1600-1100 BC) as place that is rich in gold.
"Where are the birth-places of the heroes?|The few you see hardly break the plain,I passed you by, Mycenae, and Knew you,dead, more desolate than a goat-field, talked of by the goat-herds, 'It stood here'(saidthe old man) 'covered in gold, the giants built it..'-Alpheios of Mytilene
An archeologist Heinrich Schliemann (1822-90), whose archaeological credibilty has often been questioned and often worked on the assumption that Homer was true, according to Stephen Kershaw in his book, Classical Civilisation (2010, Constable and Robinson, London).
He did sent a telegram dated 28 November 1876 to King George of Greece informing him that he had discovered some tombs that belonged to Agamemnon, Cassandra, Eurymedon and their companions, all slain at a banquet by Clytemnestra (Agamemnon's wife) and her lover Aegisthus. His findings were quite stunning.tstunning details of the tombs he found in the region.
Five of the males had burial masks made of hammered gold sheets. One had a splendid breast plate decorated with spirals, and a gold masking showing an aquiline face witha beard and a moustache, which has become known as the 'mask of Agamemnon'. Several necklaces, earrings, rosetters, ornaments, ceremonial swords with hilds decorated iwth gold plate or discs were found. It denoted that the Myacenae civilisation had a advanced knowledge of metallurgy.
Drinking cups of gold and silver included the so-called Cup of Nestor, which resembles the Nestor in Iliad: It was set with golden nails, the eared handles upon it were four, and on either side there were fashioned two droves of gold, feeding, and there were double bases beneath it.
According to Stephen Kershaw, the Mycenae may not have been rich in gold or precious metals but they were a prosperous agrarian economy that cultivated staple crops like barley and wheat. I think it has resemblance to the ancient Indian economy which depended on its spices exports to aggressively accumulated precious metals of all hues-- diamonds, gold, silver, natural pearls from the Gulf region.
The gold came "from Nubia, Egypt, Macedonia or the island of Thasos, and was probably paid for by a healthy agricultural economy that in turn sustained the activities of craftsmen, solders, sailors and rulers, who are characterised by an Odysseus-like resourcefulnes," writes Stephen Kershaw.
In an earlier article, I had suggested that India could take the lead in setting up world's first international museum on jewellery history because of the diversity and quantity of precious metals accumulated from ancient times through trade and the continuing fascination for gold in this emerging nation.
It was the discovery of several clay tablets with writings in some arachaic form of Greek that has enabled archaelogists and historians to reconstruct the life of ancient Greeks. (That belonged to another era, now we have the digital tablets!).
My son has often asked me why learn about the French revolution, Russian Revolution or the world wars or history itself. Perhaps,a reading of John Shors historical novel on Shah Jahan and his love for Mumtaz and Stephen Kershaws wonderful academic cum informative book on ancient Rome and Greek civilisations could change the views of anyone who finds history quite dull and uninspiring.
I still don't have any final word on why ancient people loved gold and continue to do so. May be relationships have their limitations, a person however dear to us will part ways. Shah Jehan's love Mumtaz departed causing grieve to him for the rest of his life but the monument that he built in her memory still survives although John Shors says much of the beauty of it could be attributed to his eldest daughter Sahanara who was in love with the architect.
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5 September 2013
Berita Semasa 5 September 2013 ...
Negative Gold Forward rates imply tight supply of physical Gold: ETFS
Historically, negative GOFO rates cause rally in gold prices except in 2001. Since July 2013, the gold price has increased by over 13% as a surge in physical buying following the April slump in price have drained liquidity out of the gold forward market.reaching 5.7moz, an 8% year-on-year gain.
Photo Courtesy: BigStockPhoto.com
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Forward Interest Rate (GOFO) has turned negative since July 2013 before returning back to positive territory recently, according to ETF Securites Ltd (ETFS).
GOFO is the interest investor has to pay for his gold-collaterised US dollar loans and normally it is positive as an investor has to pay interest on the US dollar loan. But when GOFO turns negative, the investor gets paid for the gold he has mortgaged which in effect means there is a tightness in physical gold supplies.
In such a scenario as in the previous two months, gold prices moved up. Physical market supplies tightened as is evident from 24% fall in Comex gold inventories, China imports from Hong Kong in the first six months of 2013 doubled on a year-on-year basis to 16 Moz. Central bank buying in the first half of 2013 was 8% to 5.7 Moz.
Historically, negative GOFO rates cause rally in gold prices except in 2001.
Since July 2013, the gold price has increased by over 13% as a surge in physical buying following the April slump in price have drained liquidity out of the gold forward market. Imports of gold from China were 150% higher in June compared to thesame period last year, continuing the trend of the previous months. Central bank buying also increased in the six months to June 2013, reaching 5.7moz, an 8% yearon-year gain.
With demand from Asia and the official sector continuing to show strength, and recycling trending down, lack of liquidity in the gold forward market is likely to continue to support the gold price. In the longer term, with mine supply also likely to fall as gold miners struggle with rising costs and lower profitability, supply-side factors are likely to continue to support the gold price, ETFS report added.
Sumber : Google
4 September 2013
Berita Semasa 4 September 2013 ...
US Mint begins 2013-P Fort McHenry Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated coin sale
The US Mint has already released the bullion version of the coin, which does not have a mint mark and features a brilliant finish. Sales for the bullion version have reached 10,200 units so far.
The United States Mint has kicked-off the sale of the 2013-P Fort McHenry National Monument and Historic Shrine Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins.
The reverse design of the coin features a depiction of the site during the annual “Defenders Day” celebration with fireworks above symbolizing the “rocket’s red glare” and providing a link to the fort’s historic past.
The obverse contains John Flanagan’s 1932 portrait of George Washington.
This release represents the numismatic version of the coin, which carries the “P” mint mark on the obverse and features a special finish created through a vapor blasting technique.
The US Mint has already released the bullion version of the coin, which does not have a mint mark and features a brilliant finish. Sales for the bullion version have reached 10,200 units so far.
The Fort McHenry Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coin is struck in 99.9% silver with a weight of 5 troy ounces and diameter of 3 inches. The issue carries a maximum mintage of 25,000 pieces. Pricing is currently indicated as $154.95 per coin, however this is subject to potential change.
Sumber : Google
3 September 2013
Berita Semasa 3 September 2013 ...
Gold hits $1433.50 on Syria, Buy, Sell stops for US Dec Gold
Jim Wyckoff, an analyst at Kitco has given the following buy and sell stops for December Gold futures at Comex: Buy Stops: $1434, $1440, 1450 and 1465, Sell Stops: $1413, 1400, 1395, 1388.
Photo Courtesy: BigStockPhoto.com
US Gold futures climbed to a high of $1433.50 per ounce as markets have turned nervous on possible attack on Syria by USA after the government regime used chemical weaps against its citizens. This has caused renewed interest in safe haven assets such as gold and treasures. Crude oil prices have also risen sharply recently, on worries about disruptions to oil exports from the Middle East.
Spot gold rose to $1432.5 before falling back to $1427 levels on Wednesday trade.
Jim Wyckoff, an analyst at Kitco has given the following buy and sell stops for December Gold futures at Comex:
Buy Stops: $1434, $1440, 1450 and 1465Sell Stops: $1413, 1400, 1395, 1388.
Geo-political tensions have always favoured gold and crude oil, according to HSBC bank quoted in Kitco news.
"Given investor uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, bullion has room for further gains in the near term should energy commodities including WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil continue to rally, in our view."
CME Group said in their daily morning report on Gold that investors need to track the US dollar movements for further cues.
"The bulls have to be cheered by news of another inflow of capital into a closely watched gold derivative instrument yesterday, as that suggests gold is being seen as an attractive investment again. Favorable investment talk for gold was also seen from a major US bank overnight, who suggested that gold prices were now in the process of "Bottoming". The bull camp is cheered by the slight rise in open interest in gold futures this week, but less than impressive volume on the gains this week might be disconcerting to some gold players. News from the South African labor negotiations is mixed to slightly bearish, as representatives of the National Union of Mines indicated that the miners were not "strike happy". However, with the ultimatum for strikes from some unions at the end of this week, traders should be poised to see breaking news at some point over the coming three trading sessions. Comex Gold Stocks were unchanged at 7.003 million ounces."
Sumber : Google
2 September 2013
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