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Berita Semasa 31 Ogos 2013 ...

Precious metals star performer in Q3, Deutsche Bank prefers PGMs

Analysing China data, Deutsche Bank noted that platinum imports have been strong over the recent months while palladium and silver imports have been weak

Precious metals have performed well in the third quarter providing positive returns of approximately 13%, according to Deutsche Bank. However, the bank is more upbeat on platinum group metals (PGM) which includes platinum and palladium on strong autocatalyst demand especially in China.

Commodity indices have performed well in Q3 providing positive returns while precious metals outpeformed others. "This has been despite showcasing maximum losses on a total returns basis. The strength in the precious metals sector is attributed to the recent rally in gold. Even as the threats of tapering and fund outflows are weighing down on gold prices, this is partially offset by expectations of opportunistic demand from India."

Analysing China data, Deutsche Bank noted that platinum imports have been strong over the recent months while palladium and silver imports have been weak. Trading volumes of platinum on the Shanghai Gold exchange (SGE) would suggest an opportunistic buyer pattern during periods of price weakness, but also that jewellery demand remains healthy and is potentially an upside to our supply - demand balance for 2013.

"Given the strong domestic vehicle production YTD, we would expect palladium imports to be stronger. Potentially this indicates good supplies in China or that loadings are not quite as high as we had expected."

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Berita Semasa 30 Ogos 2013 ...

Some concerns on Barclay's new Gold pricing model

Barclays Gold pricing model may not have added much new knowledge to those eagerly tracking gold market as an investment or from an academic perspective. A model is but a simplification of reality and perhaps Barclays model has visually and more descriptively tried to bring forth the importance of the most quoted variables by analyst

In theoretical as well as applied Economics, a 'model' is a simplification of reality- the most basic being demand and supply model. It tries to assess the impact of several independent variables on a dependent variable. Therefore, it looks quite surprising why Barclay's has plunged itself into applied economics to come out with a quantitative (econometric) gold pricing model which it hopes will be quite accurate than its methods of forecasting prices as it is usually the forte of the academicians.

According to Barclays, gold could witness an uptick in 2013 but thereafter face downward pressure in Q4. The average prices for 2013 would be $1394 per ounce however if Federal Fund rates are hiked then it could fall to $1229/Oz but if Fed tapering is delayed it could rise to $1482/Oz as early as october.

Gold prices are not just dependent on supply and demand but to host of factors that has some corelation to its status as currency, according to Barclays. The five major factors that influence gold prices are:

-Price Momentum: The percentage of trading days in a month when price up exceeds price down
-US Dollar Index: A weighted mean of the US dollar relative to its six major trading partners
-Physically-backed Gold ETP holdings:Physically backed gold ETP holdings Total exchange traded products that are backed by bullion and measured in tonnes, trackthe price of gold less administrative and storage costs
-Euro Stoxx Index:Euro Stoxx 50 Index An index of the eurozone stocks, provides a blue-chip representation of super-sectorleaders in the eurozone
-MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index:MSCI Emerging Market (EM) Index A free-float-weighted equity index that measures large and mid-cap representation across21 emerging market countries.

There is no doubt that some of the factors suggested above does have a significant bearing on gold prices but there is a fundamental flaw in Barclay's model- it is the fact that gold prices vary across seasons. There are times when it is moderate, weak and quite high and they are mostly related to Asian demand especially in India when prices rise sharply during festival and wedding season which begins from September.

Barclays analysis fails to take account of this in H2 2013, half of which is traditionally good for gold (September-November), so also silver. Even when it says fundamentals aren't very signficant price drivers, it has failed to take stock of a scenario if gold mine production falls drastically due to margin pressures or labour strikes and what impact it could have on market prices.

Barclays points out that, "...gold is sentiment driven, making it important to assess investor confidence. Large above-ground inventories (given that all the gold that has ever been mined still exists in some form) weaken the link between gold prices and the supply and demand balance.

It is a fact that gold demand remains robust in China, India and several emerging nations are witnessing tremendous growth in demand, something that could absord the the large inventories above ground and is unlikely that there could a supply-demand imbalance. Given the fact that there is a threat of supply disruption in South Africa, supply tightness could be higher on such an eventuality.

Barclays forecast model looks at three possible scenarios including a delay in Fed QE tapering, Fund rate hike and flows out of gold ETFs.

"We aimed to design a transparent gold price forecasting model to capture the main drivers of short-term price movements and to project the market price over a horizon of up to 12 months. The model combines the standard Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions with a set of scenario analyses under different sets of conditions affecting the explanatory variables. This allows us quickly to establish alternative pictures of the short-term gold market aside from our fundamental and market analyses," according to Barclays.

However, in my view, the model should have forecast a scenario in which demand is muted even during the peak season (September- Nov or even January) and a situation where demand grows during this period as in previous years.

Barclays Gold pricing model may not have added much new knowledge to those eagerly tracking gold market as an investment or from an academic perspective. A model is but a simplification of reality and perhaps Barclays model has visually and more descriptively tried to bring forth the importance of the most quoted variables by analysts.  But what if more than one factor or several multiple factors work in tandem, which in reality is not very difficult to happen.

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Berita Semasa 29 Ogos 2013 ...

Precious metals erase summer drop as US debt ceiling add to emerging-market woes

Russia added 6.5 tonnes to confirm its position as the world's 7th largest gold holder, breaking the 1,000-tonne mark for the first time. Turkish bank deposits added a further 22 tonnes to Ankara's holdings, the 11th largest at 464 tonnes.

Wholesale gold jumped to new 3-month highs as London traders returned from the August Bank Holiday on Tuesday, rising above $1418 per ounce as world stock markets fell.

Commodities also rose,erasing the last of their summer drop alongside precious metals, whilst major government bonds ticked higher, edging interest rates back down from their recent two-year highs.

Silver hit its best level since April at $24.50 per ounce.

"The price action remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows," adds technical analysis of the gold chart from market-maker Scotia Mocatta.

"Gold," says Eugen Weinberg at Commerzbank, "is clearly finding support from the geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa, amongst other things."

US secretary of state John Kerry yesterday called chemical attacks on civilians by Syrian government troops"a moral obscenity", while weapons inspectors from the United Nations were shot at near Damascus.

US Treasury secretary Jack Lew meantime said that the US government will have only $50 billion to spend by mid-October, and urged Congress to raise the "debt ceiling" to avoid running out of spending money.

The threat of that crisis in 2011 saw the gold price surge to all-time highs above$1900.
"Such a scenario could undermine financial markets and result in significant disruptions to our economy," Lew said.

After Friday's weak sales data for new US homes, yesterday's surprise drop in Durable Goods Orders"[is] again raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may actually not move to trim its bond purchases until October at the earliest," says one gold analyst.

Noting that precious metals are "the star performer" in the third quarter of 2013 so far, "Even as the threats of tapering and fund outflows are weighing down on gold,"says Deutsche Bank, "this is partially offset by expectations of opportunistic demand from India."

But forecasting a drop to average $1250 in the fourth quarter, Morgan Stanley says "a strengthening US currency and rising US bond yields have already proved to be a major headwind to gold.

"We expect this backdrop to be reflected in reduced investor net long positioning in the paper gold market and further reductions in the holding of physically backed gold ETFs."

Speculators trading US gold futures and options last week cut their bearish bets and increased their bullish positions, new data showed late Friday.

Rising to a 6-month high, the "net long" balance of bullish minus bearish bets rose to 320 tonnes equivalent, up by 25% from a week before.

Cash-price positions in exchange-traded gold trusts - favored by Western fund managers - also rose fora second week running, data from Bloomberg show, after sinking 25% in 2013 to four-year lows.

Emerging-market central banks raised their gold bullion positions again in July, new data from the International Monetary Fund showed this morning.

Russia added 6.5 tonnes to confirm its position as the world's 7th largest gold holder, breaking the 1,000-tonne mark for the first time. Turkish bank deposits added a further 22 tonnes to Ankara's holdings, the 11th largest at 464 tonnes.

Intervening to try and defend the value of their currencies, however, cost emerging-market central banks some $81 billion of "emergency reserves" since May, according to analysis from Morgan Stanley, which excludes China.

"It would be desirable for advanced economies to implement a more predictable exit [from, quantitative easing]," said Mexico's central-bank governor – and one-time IMF managing director candidate - Agustin Carstens at the weekend's Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming.

"Better communication,speaking with one voice, is very important."
Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega said yesterday his country is suffering a "mini crisis"as a result of the US Federal Reserve communicating its aims "poorly".

"The United States,"says China's vice-finance minister Zhu Guangyao, "must consider the spill-over effect of its monetary policy, especially the opportunity and rhythm of its exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy."

A fresh all-time low in the Indian Rupee today drove gold to new all-time highs for the world's #1 consumers.

"Go[ing] into the later part of this year and towards November when there are Diwali holidays," says Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analyst Christy Tan, speaking to the Economic Times, "you probably will see stronger demand for gold and oil. So that could be a contentious point for the Rupee" thanks to yet-stronger outflows of money to pay for imports.

"The gap between domestic and international gold prices," says All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation chairman Haresh Soni, "has become too much after adding the import duty, value-added tax and high local premiums.

"I am not too optimistic about demand during the festival season. This is an inflated rate."

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Berita Semasa 28 Ogos 2013 ...

Syria fears pushes Gold higher to $1427 levels

Trading far above the exponential moving average of $1364, gold could be in for some short-term correction at $1460-75 levels before its journey ahead, Sreekumar Raghavan said.

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US Gold futures for December delivery has risen to $1427.7 on electronic trading on Wednesday and looks poised for further growth ahead on likely US attack on Syria.
As this analysis is being compiled, US Gold futures have climbed further to $1432.6, however, an RSI of 75.04 suggests bullish, overbought territory and MACD is quite positive, according to Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Strategist at India-based Commodity Online Group.

In India, sharp depreciation of the Rupee has caused gold prices to climb in both futures and spot markets and upcoming festival, wedding season is expected to give firm support to prices, he added.

"Gold has been an interesting market to watch over the last twelve months.Seeing it fall from grace as it tested $1800/oz. last October and began to take the elevator down as sellers kicked it up a notch in April and June with massive sell offs. We could see the severity of the decline,"

Trading far above the exponential moving average of $1364, gold could be in for some short-term correction at $1460-75 levels before its journey ahead, Sreekumar Raghavan said.
As Obama's administration builds a case for a likely military action in Syria, several analysts said such a move probably would not have lingering negative consequences for the president at home - as long as the intervention was short-lived, according to a Reuters news analysis. However, Reuters polls showed that 60% of Americans are against US interventiion in Syria, while just 9% support it.

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Berita Semasa 27 Ogos 2013 ...

Goldcorp becomes the favourite of analysts on better prospects ahead

On a positive note, despite slashing capital expenditure for exploration and mine development, gold production increased for the same period by 11% year-over-year to 646,000 ounces of gold.

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Gold Corp Inc (NYSE:GG,TSX:G) has produced a disappointing second quarter result but so did many other miners on bearish gold prices but many analysts are upbeat on the prospects of Gold Corp Inc.

Chris Mancini, Research Analyst at Gabelli Gold Fund points out that the company is on a spending spree right now but it has a neutral balance sheet. The work going on in Cerro Negro and expansion of Red Lake Mine in Ontario should push cash flows of the company.

According to Goldcorp, its 2013 production and cost guidance remains unaffected. This leaves it on track to produce 2.5 to 2.8 million ounces of gold at an all in sustaining cost of $1,000 to $1,100 per ounce. When this is considered in conjunction with the recent spike in the gold price to $1,376 per ounce, Goldcorp’s profitability is expected to improve significantly, Matt Smith writes in Motley Fool.

On a positive note, despite slashing capital expenditure for exploration and mine development, gold production increased for the same period by 11% year-over-year to 646,000 ounces of gold. This increase in production positions Goldcorp to take advantage of the recent spike in gold prices and should assist profitability.
News & Stock updateShare prices of Goldcorp Inc has climbed from a low of $27.45 to $31.10 but still a bit weak on Wednesday trading.

Goldcorp Inc. (GG) has signed the Obishikokaang Collaboration Agreement with Lac Seul First Nation to set the foundation for continued consultation and support for current and future operations of Red Lake Gold Mines. The deal was signed on Aug 16 in the Municipality of Red Lake, Ontario.

The collaboration will define long-term economic benefits for the Lac Seul First Nation. It will also bring recognition for the 3,200 First Nation band members who have significant historical ties for the development of the Red Lake gold camp. Many band members also stay within the Municipality of Red Lake.

Barry Allan, Mackie Research Capital (7/26/13) "Goldcorp Inc. remains our top senior pick with an attractive growth profile. Compared to the peer group, the company has low operating costs and is expected to grow production from 2.4 Moz gold in 2012 to 3.85 Moz in 2016. . .we reiterate our Buy recommendation."

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Berita Semasa 26 Ogos 2013 ...

Billionaire Paulson may not have lost his appetite for Gold: Saxo Bank

Gold prices now have the possibility to climb up as most of the selling seems to have been done already. Phgysical demand remains strong despite India government efforts to curb gold purchase through increased import duties.

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Billionaire investor Paulson may have caused a crash in gold prices to $1180 levels in June as he sold 1.1 mn ounces held in the world's largest physically backed gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) in the second quarter of 2013 while gold holdings declined by 402 tons in ETFs.

Now that US gold futures for December delivery has hit a high of $1378.9 before falling back to $1362.9 on Thursday electronic trading. But has Paulson lost his interest in Gold? According to Ole S Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, it is very unlikely  that Paulson has lost interest in gold. He could have moved his investments into swap markets where it is slight cheaper on the funding side and is also easier for investors to remain anonymous.

Gold prices now have the possibility to climb up as most of the selling seems to have been done already. Phgysical demand remains strong despite India government efforts to curb gold purchase through increased import duties.

Supportive factors for gold are the technical break of $1350 which was a major resistance level and the rally in silver but Fed tapering and rising bond yields provide some downside risks.
Gold has the potential to move to $1350 levels, according to Ole S Hansen.

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Berita Semasa 25 Ogos 2013 ...

India could be the ideal destination for an International Museum of Jewellery History

India can become an international tourist destination for jewellery art just as Dubai has become the world's largest trading centre for gold despite the fact that no mines are situated within 5000 miles of this emirate.

India continues to be the largest consumer of gold and its love for this yellow metal goes back several thousand years to Indus Valley Civilization. Thereafter, India produced some of the finest jewellery pieces both enamalled and unenamelled during the Mauryan dynasty during third century AD.
The recent development in the gold market has raised a passion in me to dig deeper into India's love for gold which infact has now become quite universal or perhaps it was.

According to M L Nigam in his book Indian Jewellery (Roli Books Pvt Ltd, 1999, 2001), foreign writers have eloquently written about the India's love for gold and jewellery made of other precious metals, Megasthenes, Nearchus, the Greek travellers are mong them. Kautilya's Arthasastra, a treatise on statecraft also describes in detail the art of jewellery making that was prevalent during the period. "Even the minutest details at every stage, from the examination and procurement of raw materials to the last finishing touches given to ornaments, are clearly mentioned by the author," M L Nigam writes about Arthasastra.

"Jewellery was made of both precious and semi-precious stones. Mines producing preicous stones like diamonds, rubies, emeralds and precious metals like gold, silver, copper and iron were controlled by the Director of Mines and Metals," according to Nigam.

Indian rulers and businessmen were able to amass gold because of the trade that happened with several nations across the globe, chiefly spices.After the Mauryan dynasty, Gupta empire saw some of the finest artworks in jewellery followed by the Mughal rule when no signficant new forms were introduced but craftsmanship was enhanced considerably.I think there are several books on Indian jewellery for any student of jewellery history, design, and aesthetics to ponder over.

Indian goldsmiths had also perfected the art of enamelling ornaments by providing blue, red, green, white colours mostly in the reverse side of ornaments.They usually depicted trees,flowers, animals, mythological characters among others. In their book, Handcrafted Indian Enamel Jewellery (Roli Books), Rita Devi Sharma and M Varadarajan describe some of the best creations in enamalled jewellery in India-- kundan, Navaratnas, Benares, Lucknow, Decann and other styles that were in vogue.

From glancing through some history books, it seems precious metals were considered a symbol of prosperity and wealth by the rulers and upper class while for the poor it provided some security and insurance against unexpected events in life.

"The possession of gems and jewellery in ancient India was also considered a kind of insurance against poverty and other natural mishaps in one's life. The malleable quality of the precious metals, like gold and silver, however proved to be detrimental to the continuity of some of the older forms of Indian jewellery. The frequent melting of old ornaments compounded this problem and led to a great cultural loss," according to M L Nigam quoted earlier.

This in fact set my thoughts on why no one has ever conceptualised a National Musueam on Jewellery Art and History in some prominent city in India on the lines of major museums in USA and UK. Now the best possible ancient works of art in gold or other metals are lying scattered across some musuems in India-- National Museum in Delhi, Government museums in Madras, Andhra Pradesh,and Madhya Pradesh. Outside the country, one prominent place where you can find good speciemens of Indian jewellery is Victoria and Albert Musuem in UK.

There are a few reasons why India is most ideally poised to set up the International Museum of Jewellery History

1)India's has been influenced by several cultures in the creation of its jewellery designs from time to time and Indian's went a step ahead. George Birdwood observes in his book, Industrial Art of India, about enamellings in Indian jewellery: 'Even Paris cannot paint gold with the ruby, coral red, emerald green and turquoise and
sapphire blues of the enamels of Jaipur, Lahore, Benares and Lucknow.'Therefore, no other place perhaps has the rich tradition and history to set up an international museum on Jewellery.

2)Much of the artworks of historic times are confined to books or some South Indian temples as in SreePadmanabha Swamy temple in Thiruvananthapuram, capital city of Kerala where billions of dollar worth jewellery lies in the cellars inaccesible to common man. Similarly, several rulers ofpricely states owned huge amounts of wealth in precious metals and generations in the royal families have inherited it. A museum can showcase the best of these colletions even when it remains the property of its legal owners.

3)According to historians, several traditional tribes such as Gujjars are facing extinction as new machine designs have invaded the market. There could as well be families involved in enamalled jewellery making who could be brought to the forefront once the museum becomes a cultural and learning centre.

4)There are several other spinoffs from such a venture-- it could become a learning centre for international jewellery designers looking for new ideas.

5) India can become an international tourist destination for jewellery art just as Dubai has become the world's largest trading centre for gold despite the fact that no mines are situated within 5000 miles of this emirate.
6) There is a raging debate on whether Indians should continue to import and consume more gold. Perhaps, we have amassed precious metals and now we can monetise on that with the setting up of this internatioanal jewellery centre.

I will set out our further vision on this proposal in subsequent columns. I have also picked up an interesting historical novel, Beneath a Marble Sky (Rupa Publishers, India, 2013)  by John Shors, which pertain to the 17th Century Mughal emperor Shah Jahan, builindg of the Taj in memory of his wife Mumtaz Mahal and their epic love story to get some idea of the precious gems and jewels used during those ear. Meanwhile readers are free to share their views to.

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Berita Semasa 24 Ogos 2013 ...

150 year old Indian Jewellery TBZ wins MACCIA Award 2013

The annual MACCIA Awards aim to recognize and reward the work of those entities that have positively impacted the State of Maharashtra and brought laurels not only in an individual capacity but also helped put Brand Maharashtra on the Indian and global radar in the past year.

Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Limited (TBZ), a well-known and trusted jewellery retailer in India with a rich legacy of over 150 years, has been honoured with the prestigious MACCIA Award 2013 for Excellence in Entrepreneurship – Large Enterprise in Gems & Jewellery category. Mr. Shrikant Zaveri, Chairman & MD, TBZ Ltd., received the coveted award from Hon. Union Minister Mr. Sharad Pawar at a glittering function organized by the Maharashtra Chamber of Commerce, Industry & Agriculture (MACCIA).

The annual MACCIA Awards aim to recognize and reward the work of those entities that have positively impacTted the State of Maharashtra and brought laurels not only in an individual capacity but also helped put Brand Maharashtra on the Indian and global radar in the past year. TBZ–The Original was born in Zaveri Bazaar in the financial and fashion capital of India, Mumbai, and has progressed into a 150-year ‘young’ revered institution.
Mr. Shrikant Gopaldas Zaveri, the doyen of India’s gem and jewellery sector, is the architect of this edifice. Just as TBZ-The Original’s Zaveri Bazaar showroom has achieved iconic status and Mr. Zaveri is also a venerable icon in the jewellery retailing business and consumer domain.  Mr. Shrikant Zaveri, CMD, TBZ Ltd, said, "It is a great honour to be recognized by the Maharashtra Chamber of Commerce, Industry & Agriculture. Getting the prestigious MACCIA award from Hon. Union Minister Shri Sharad Pawar is a source of great encouragement and spurs us to greater glory. More importantly, the MACCIA awards honour every aspect, contribution and effort of TBZ-The Original in terms of achieving new frontiers of achievement, innovation and benchmarks of doing business in the gems & jewellery industry."

The award is based on the analysis and methodology developed by Rating Agency ICRA to have a 360 degree view of the TBZ’s business performance from a qualitative as well as a quantitative perspective. No single data point was used in isolation during the short listing process.

ICRA uses weighted scores to arrive at the shortlist and the entire process is synchronized with the environment so as to adapt to the same before identifying the top performers each year.Renowned for its innovative designs & craftsmanship in gold and diamond jewellery, TBZ-The Original has won several Indian and international jewellery design and industry awards in its illustrious history. Recently TBZ-The Original won three prestigious JJS –IJ Jewellers Choice Designs Awards at a glittering event in Jaipur for Diamond and Emerald jewellery and also ‘Retail Leadership Award’ & ‘National Jewellery Awards’.

In the last few months, TBZ-The Original has opened 11 stores in cities of Pune, Mumbai, Vadodara, Kolkata, Vapi, Bhavnagar, Vasai, Nagpur, Raipur and Vashi, Navi Mumbai . Presently, it has 26 stores in 20 cities across 7 States including Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal.

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Berita Semasa 23 Ogos 2013 ...

Best books to read on Indian jewellery tradition and culture

When it comes to Indian jewellery tradition and culture, web alone may not satisfy the knowledge sought by students of history, jewellery designers and for that matter anyone interested in the topic. That is where books play a major role and some of them may be out of print and available only in libraries and museums

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The onslaught of digital medium, e-books, internet, social media seems to have impacted reading habits of the younger generation, according to some observers although there is no hard data to back up.

It may not be long before all of the content that has to read, copied and transmitted appears in the electronic space either through kindle or through the web.For the time being, however, the best search engines are no substitute for the wealth of information already available in books but not elsewhere.

This made me try a compiliation of books related to Indian jewellery tradition and culture which could be of use to anyone interested in jewellery, precious metals history or related topics.

1) Handcrafted Indian Enamel Jewellery by Rita Devi Sharma, M Varadarajan (Roli Books India, 2008, website: www.rolibooks.com): An indispensable book for anyone seeking a glimpse into the rich tradition of enamelling in India and some of the best photos collected from museums in India and abroad. Rita Devi is an epigraphist, numismatist and jewellery expert while Muthuswamy Varadarajan, a retired IAS officer and on the committee of National Museum, New Delhi.

2)Indian Jewellery by M L Nigam (Roli Books,1999, website:www.rolibooks.com): This book is rich in details about the jewellery designs that were in vogue at various periods in Indian history beginning with Indus Valley Civilisation, Mauryan, Gupta, Mughal, Kakatiya period among others. Even when it resembles a history text book it is rich in high quality photographs and depth of information.

Some other books worth mentioning from the reading list given in the above books are
1)Traditional Jewellery of India by Oppi Untracht, Thames and Hudson, London, 1997

2)Indian Jewellery and Ornaments and Decorative Designs, By Jamila Brij Bhushan, Taraporewala Sons & Co Ltd, Bombay, 1955

3)Temple Jewellery, Decorative Arts of India by Nagaswamy R & Edited by M L Nigam, Salar Jung Museum, Hyderbad, 1987.

4)Jewellery-Inlay work and Studding of Gems, History of Technology in India, Vol. I,by ML Nigam, Indian National Science Academy, New Delhi, 1997

5)Indian Jewellery by Hendley, TH

6)The Industrial Arts of India by George Birdwood, reprinted London, 1971

7)Traditions of India by Meera Sushil Kumar, India Book House Ltd, Bombay, 2001

8)Taxila, 3 Volumes by John Marshall, Cambridge, 1951.

9)Arts of Goldsmith, The Indian Heritage, Court Life and Arts under Mughal Rule, Victoria & Albert Museum, London, 1982

10)Jeypore Enamels by Jacob SS, Hendley TH

11)Treasury of the World, Jewelled Arts of India in the Age of Mughals by Manual Keen, Salam Kaouki, Thames & Hudson, 2001.

12)Dance of the Peacock: Jewellery Traditions of India by R Usha and Bala Krishnan, India Book House, 2001, Government of India publicaitons

13)Jewels of Nizams by R Usha, Bala Krishnan by India Book House, Govt of India, 2001.

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Berita Semasa 22 Ogos 2013 ...

Gold's correlation with S&P 500 turns negative: Sharps Pixley

Since the recent trough on 27 June, the gold futures rebounded 12.34 percent while the S&P 500 Index only climbed 3.29 percent, reflecting the market's perception of the value in gold, Sharps Pixley report said.

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The correlation betwen S&P 500 and gold has turned negative since the gold prices bottomed at the end of June, according to a daily market view from Sharps Pixley.

"The most recent U.S. weekly jobless claims declined to 320,000, the lowest level since October 2007. As the concern of the Fed's QE tapering mounts, bond yields around the world surge. Weaker earnings reports in the U.S. and increasing violence out of Egypt have hurt global stock markets in the past two days. The stock investors are not much cheered by the end of the Euro region recession, with the Q2 GDP rising 0.3 percent," the report added.

Since the recent trough on 27 June, the gold futures rebounded 12.34 percent while the S&P 500 Index only climbed 3.29 percent, reflecting the market's perception of the value in gold, Sharps Pixley report said.

The rise in bond yields in major countries around the world, weak dollar and equities have provided the right ambience for gold to re-assert itself as an alternative asset.

According to filings made with US Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC), billionaire investor John Paulson solder over half of his gold ETF positions during the second quarter of 2013 while other hedge fund managers including George Soros and Daniel Loeb got rid of their positions.

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Berita Semasa 21 Ogos 2013 ...

Gold bulls are back again, US gold futures could target $1450

Now analysts who are seeing bullish gold are rising with John Bridges, Anant Inani of J P Morgan and MacNeil Curry, Head of Global Technical Strategy at Bank of America leading the pack.

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US Gold futures for December delivery rose $1372.3 per ounce on Friday electronic trading before falling to $1359.3. The precious metal has witnessed a recently rally on weakness in dollar, equities and rise in bond yields that has made the gold as an attractive alternative investment.

Now analysts who are seeing bullish gold are rising with John Bridges, Anant Inani of J P Morgan and MacNeil Curry, Head of Global Technical Strategy at Bank of America leading the pack.

John Bridges and Anant Inani has said that "We encourage shorter-term investors to consider getting long in the gold space with a four to five week time�horizon." According to MacNeil Curry of Bank of America, Gold is expected to go to $1400 to 1450 per ounce levels and gives three reasons to be bullish on gold.

Jim Wyckoff, renowned analyst has attributed the gold rally to technical buying and safe haven buying. "The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $1,367.90 and then at $1,375.00. First support is seen at $1,350.00 and then at $1,345.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0"

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Berita Semasa 20 Ogos 2013 ...

Gold oversupply 152 tons in Q2, near term strategy Bullish: Barclays

Gold ETP holdings rose last week by 4.1 tonnes. However, metal held in trust is down 20.2 tonnes so far in August, bringing year-to-date net outflows to around 665 tonnes so far this year. The distribution of outflows in August has been global, but largely has been concentrated in North American listed products.

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Gold market was oversupplied to the extent of 152 tons in Q2 2013 and 217 tons in H2 2013 but the yellow metal faces some downside pressure unless strong physical demand emerges to ffset ETF disinvestments, according to Barclays.

Price foreast for Q3, 2013: $1200/oz, 2013
According to Barclays, the macro environment remains neutral while investor inflows are bearish. Recent developments in Eruozone area including growth in industrial production, French and German GDP surprises, expansion in UK environment and Barclays expects tapering activities to start by September despite the mixed economic data from USA.

Gold ETP holdings rose last week by 4.1 tonnes. However, metal held in trust is down 20.2 tonnes so far in August, bringing year-to-date net outflows to around 665 tonnes so far this year. The distribution of outflows in August has been global, but largely has been concentrated in North American listed products.

The latest CFTC data for the week ending 13 August showed that net positioning rose for a second week, this time by 2.3k lots. Short covering outweighed a fall in long positioning, as short positioning fell by 7.6k lots and longs fell by 5.3k lots. While short positioning remains elevated, therefore leaving scope for further short covering activity, a change in market perception toward Fed tapering or weaker-than-expected data could trigger the re-establishment of short positioning, possibly exacerbating the downside for gold.

According to the latest data from the US Mint, US gold coin sales have reached 7koz so far in August, a weak run rate compared with months prior, and furthering the slowing trend we have seen since coin sales hit a peak in April of 246.5koz. So far this year, 866.5koz of gold coins have been sold from the US Mint, versus 841koz in all of last year.

The bearish equity sector rotation and weakening internals, coupled with a poor seasonal corridor for risk into early October, is symbiotically reacting with offered rates and a bid US dollar. In turn, this is lifting precious metals with silver having its best week since 2011. Keep an upside focus as the impulsive ascent continues. The consistency lies in the Mint Ratio, which topped out in late July (before equities rolled lower) and is breaking down hard, suggesting further silver outperformance over gold.

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Public Gold Price ...

posted from Bloggeroid

Public Gold Price ...

posted from Bloggeroid

Public Gold Price ...

posted from Bloggeroid

Berita Semasa 11 Ogos 2013 ...

Silver Institute to host 2013 Silver Industrial Conference on Oct 22-23

The broad industrial demand for silver, in just a few years, has gone from contrasting periods of capacity shortages to excess production capabilities, each affecting the varied segments of the industry differently

The Silver Institute will host the 2013 Silver Industrial Conference in Washington, D.C., on October 22-23 at Capital Hilton Hotel.

The event is dedicated to the metal’s ever-growing role in the industrial world, and will bring together leading executives from throughout the wide-ranging silver industry and supply chain, to focus attention on future commercial and industrial developments, and the changing demands of the silver marketplace.

The broad industrial demand for silver, in just a few years, has gone from contrasting periods of capacity shortages to excess production capabilities, each affecting the varied segments of the industry differently. Total industrial uses of silver currently account for over 50% of silver fabrication demand. The current outlook for demand and usage of silver varies considerably through the different product segments of the industry.

Demands and usage will continue to change as new end uses are found, and exciting technologies and industrial applications evolve and grow increasingly sophisticated.

It is against this backdrop that the Silver Institute has planned and scheduled the 2013 Silver Industrial Conference in October, to focus attention on the near and long term prospects for industrial demand for silver, in the face of the current world economy.

Participants will include executives and experts from across the silver supply chain, including those from industrial fabricators, miners, refiners, bullion bankers, technology companies, and government agencies.�It will provide a unique opportunity to exchange viewpoints and experiences with other industry participant’s through the variety of presentations, panel discussions and networking opportunities.

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Berita Semasa 10 Ogos 2013 ...

Junior explorers to get special focus at China Mining Conference 2013

The organisers of the major international event in China that attracts big players in mining and energy sector said that this year ten country sessions have been arranged and several government booths have been booked already. The annual industry event attracts major players from Canada, Australia, Greenland, Peru, Argentina every year and this year Chile, Kenya and New Zealand are expected to participate, the organisers said.

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Junior miners will get increased focus at the China Mining Conference for the first time in its 15 year history allowing the stake holders in that segment to showcase their company and projects to investors, according to Frank Hou, an event executive of the Conference.

The organisers of the major international event in China that attracts big players in mining and energy sector said that this year ten country sessions have been arranged and several government booths have been booked already. The annual industry event attracts major players from Canada, Australia, Greenland, Peru, Argentina every year and this year Chile, Kenya and New Zealand are expected to participate, the organisers said.

There will be 50 sessions that cover policies and financing, prospecting, exploration and mining, commodities, country investment and mining sustainability.�

China Outbound Investment Forum (2nd Exploration Exchange China) will be supported by China Ministry of Commerce. In this session, there will be summary and analysis report about Chinese companies investing abroad since 2009. The report will give the general information about Chinese companies of investing abroad and also some references of the company current situations and strategies.�

China Green Mines Conference will bring a lot of business opportunities for foreign mining, consulting, technology and equipment companies. According to China Government policies, by year 2020, most of the mine sites should be green mines. Moreover, Chinese government has formed strict evaluation categories for the certificate of Green Mines. As China has more than 100,000 mines, this is another attractive business opportunity for international mining community.�

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Public Gold Price ...

posted from Bloggeroid

Berita Semasa 9 Ogos 2013 ...

Gold trends indicate possibility of $1500 by end-2013

Perhaps, I may reserve the technical view on gold to a later day but some overview on technicals may be appropriate at this time. The Kitco charts for one year gold based on closing New York prices show a continous downard slope or in technical terminology a descending channel. It would require sustained break above $1400 to push prices higher to $1500 and later $1600 levels.

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When it comes to Gold, just about everyone on the street is an expert. Last week, when I went to buy from the local grocer, he was also eager to know how the markets are faring but only that he himself had a view on gold and equities in general. But much of it has been gathered from hearsay or �and not from any meaninful analysis of the markets.

As I have noted yesterday, gold bulls are cautiously returning but not many are venturing into any wild guess for the simple reason that they have often failed to accurately gauge market sentiments.�

I am not overly bullish on gold but there are some indications already to show that gold could move higher.
- India's Finance Minister P Chidambaram has said that gold imports could fall to 845 tons this year due to import restrcitions.Lesser gold flow into a market which has an insatiable appetite for it, could signal further upward pressure on prices. �Indian market is witnessing a seasonal weakness and hence prices are bound to go up until it attains a peak during Diwali festivities, wedding season.

-China's demand is witnessing a surge which could continue to provide support for gold, so is some buying by Central banks.

- Physical demand continues to overpower any distortions created in the market by the derivatives, according to Mark Mobius of Templeton Investments.

-Jeff Nichols, precious metals economist in an analysis has already mentioned about the possibility of staflation in US economy generating a bullish scenario for gold.

Perhaps, I may reserve the technical view on gold to a later day but some overview on technicals may be appropriate at this time. The Kitco charts for one year gold based on closing New York prices show a continous downard slope or in technical terminology a descending channel. It would require sustained break above $1400 to push prices higher to $1500 and later $1600 levels.

However the 30-day charts show a rising wedge which is a reversal pattern that shows up typically in a bear market. Rising wedge usually provides a low risk/high reward ratio but there are other aspects to be looked into including volume although targets are achieved quickly, according to technical experts.

Recent data from US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also indicate long positions by managed futures has increased by 5256 while short positions had fallen by 8257.

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council has published a new research report on the link between US interest rates and gold prices. It said that a normal rate of interest from 0-4% is not adverse to gold eventhough a low rate environment is more conducive for the metal.

Juan Carlos Artigas, Head of Investment Research at the World Gold Council said: While headlines have focused on the recent price moves, the long term drivers of gold including emerging market growth and central bank demand hold firm, particularly when combined with a likely reduction in supply from both mine production and recycling. Even with the highest rate of interest, the core value of gold is to balance out a portfolio. Most investors are under allocated; optimal levels are identified as between 2% and 10%.”

Hence, present trends including a possible threat of tapering of QE is not entirely negative for gold while some really positive factors are in the background providing firm support. Therefore, given a strong push above $1400 in next two months could see prices moving higher to $1550-1600 levels.

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Berita Semasa 8 Ogos 2013 ...

Normal interest rate environment is ideal for investing in Gold: WGC

Although the US market can lead investor behaviour in the short term, the gold market has become more diverse in both sectors and geographies in recent years. The long-term performance of gold is not solely tied to US sentiment and behaviour.

Negative interest rates environment supports gold investment demand while rising rates increase the cost of investing in it. However, a normal rate environment at 0-4% is not adverse to gold and in such a scenario investors could benefit by including gold in their portfolio, according to a new research paper titled 'Gold and US interest rates: a reality check'published by the World Gold Council.

The analysis shows that in a normal real rate environment:
Returns for gold are in line with the long term average of an annualised 6-7%.Volatility is significantly lower than during very high or low real rate environments.Correlation between gold and global equities is slightly negative, in line with its long-term average correlation of zero.Additionally, the impact of US real rates on the gold price appears to have reduced in significance. Although the US market can lead investor behaviour in the short term, the gold market has become more diverse in both sectors and geographies in recent years. The long-term performance of gold is not solely tied to US sentiment and behaviour. Emerging markets are now increasingly driving the long term view of gold. US physical demand for gold (including ETFs) accounts for less than 10% of the market, while emerging markets make up close to 70% of annual demand.

Juan Carlos Artigas, Head of Investment Research at the World Gold Council said:
“The US investor market clearly has a strong influence on gold due to the size of transactions and, to some extent, its effect on investor behaviour elsewhere, our analysis demonstrates that the inverse link between US interest rates and the gold price oversimplifies the issues currently at play.

“In the event of a return to a more normalised real rate environment in the US it is worth remembering �that investment demand is not the only arbiter of gold prices, nor does it originate solely in the US. A case in point is the unprecedented growth in Chinese gold consumption, which rose by 132% between 2007 and 2012 and looks set to continue even if economic growth were to slow to 5-6%.

“While headlines have focused on the recent price moves, the long term drivers of gold including emerging market growth and central bank demand hold firm, particularly when combined with a likely reduction in supply from both mine production and recycling. Even with the highest rate of interest, the core value of gold is to balance out a portfolio. Most investors are under allocated; optimal levels are identified as between 2% and 10%.”

Sumber : Google