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30 April 2013
Berita Semasa 30 April 2013 ...
South Sudan to open up Gold sector
South Sudan's gold reserves remain largely unmapped but the few discovered ones holds huge reserves, analysts said.
After availing most of undivided Sudan's oil fields, South Sudan is also wants to tap country's gold reserves to boost it’s young economy.
South Sudan's gold reserves remain largely unmapped but the few discovered ones holds huge reserves, analysts said.
They added that South Sudan may have a basement area with gold potential of about 300000km2,a third larger than Ghana.
Souith Sudan's gold-mining sector is dominated by artisanal, or informal, mining and the government is losing potential revenue as artisanals sell their production on the black market and pay no taxes.
Informal mining also lead to conflicts as thousands of people in the Darfur region of Sudan are fleeing fighting between two tribes over gold mines and levies.
However, after the government opened up gold sector, global gold prospectors are queuing up for permits in South Sudan.
Country's ministry of minerals said recently there were 90 companies with gold concessions. Of these, 13 were already in production and another seven would start this year.
The excitement over South Sudan's gold potential follows reports of big nuggets found by artisanals scratching the surface. Evidence of copper, uranium, diamonds and iron ore has also been found.
But the last geological survey was done in the 1980s and many records were lost in the civil war.
Oil, which provides 98% of the new, landlocked country's revenue, can be exported only through Sudanese pipelines.
But the International Monetary Fund warned South Sudan in 2011 its oil output by 2020 will be half its 2009 peak unless it makes new discoveries or improves recoveries.
Northern neighour Sudan earned $2,2bn from gold exports last year and expected to produce about 50t worth $2,5bn in 2013. That would make it Africa's third-biggest producer after SA and Ghana.
Sumber : Google
29 April 2013
600009
Assalammualaikum ...
Ucapan ribuan terima kasih kepada semua rakan-rakan pembaca budiman blog ini dengan sokongan yang padu sehingga kaunter hit pengunjung telah mencapai angka 600009 ...
Harapan saya agar perkongsian ilmu ini akan memberi manfaat kepada semua ...
InsyaAllah ...
TQ ALLAH
Berita Semasa 29 April 2013 ...
India cuts Gold,Silver import tariff value
Tariff value is the base price on which the customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing.
World's largest gold importer India cut the tariff value of gold and silver to $499 per 10 grams and $890 per kg, respectively, taking into account weak global prices of the precious metals.
According to the notification issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC), the tariff value of gold and silver has been reduced.
During the first fortnight of April 2013, the tariff value of gold stood at $521 per ten grams and silver at $920 per kg.
The government reduced import tariff value of precious metals following weak price trend in the global market, where gold plunged 9.35 per cent to $1,360.60 an ounce at the New York exchange.
The metal has dropped by $200 an ounce, or nearly 13 per cent, in the last two trading days.
Tracking weak global cues, gold prices fell in the national capital by Rs 1,160 per ten grams to 21-month low at Rs 26,440.
Tariff value is the base price on which the customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing.
Sumber : Google
28 April 2013
Berita Semasa 28 April 2013 ...
China Gold markets fail to handle Gold plunge
On the other hand, spot market has a timing issue that imposed a hurdle for investors trying to sell quickly to reduce losses.
Lack of diversity and liquidity in Chinese Gold futures markets were responsible for the sudden panic in country's gold markey during the 'gold plunge', analysts said.
They said during the period which starts from April 10, when a large number of gold holders want to short the metal to hedge against a further price fall, they have a problem finding enough parties willing to take the bet.
As gold trading channels in Chinese market are relatively narrow and the pricing power of country's
gold market is weaker than the more mature markets overseas, domestic gold prices are closely linked to movements in international markets with spot gold prices set during the night, Beijing time, when trading is closed.
When the Chinese market opens the next day, the deluge of sell orders can push prices down at a rate that triggers a suspension in trading.
Analysts added that the gap between trading times in Shanghai, London or New York has been a problem for domestic individual investors as the gold price in the global market dropped off the cliff — Chinese investors not sell off because the domestic trading platform was not in trading hours.
On the other hand, spot market has a timing issue that imposed a hurdle for investors trying to sell quickly to reduce losses.
While the precipitous fall in global prices has touched off a gold rush among Chinese consumers, gold producers and traders are keen to offload their huge stockpiles to minimize real and potential losses.
In doing so, they face a common problem that has become increasingly pressing since the price of the metal began to nosedive on April 10. The problem is the restrictive domestic gold futures market that lacks the liquidity and diversity to absorb a sudden surge in sell orders.
Gold producers and jewelry sellers that are listed in the A-share market said large inventory and price risks may affect their performance this year if the gold price continues to fall, but it is too early to tell what measures should be taken at the current stage.
Sumber : Google
27 April 2013
Berita Semasa 27 April 2013 ...
Gold, Silver sell-offs - been here before but this time is different
This time, physical demand had been surging just before paper price declines led by the manipulated futures market. Also, hedge funds have also been piling in to short the market to a historic degree based on the negative technical picture.
The precious metals have seen dramatic sell-offs before, although the primary difference between previous precious metal declines and the recent drop is the current shortage of physical metal.
It is also worth considering how well the commercial bullion traders are positioned for a rally after these past two days of sharply dropping prices, especially when the latest price drop came on top of a physical market signalling tightness all along.
Major dealers in North America and the EU seem to be out of physical precious metal stock almost across the board. This physical shortage had been developing for some time, in contrast to the 2008 drop.
In terms of the supply fundamentals, the loss of Kennecott’s Bingham Canyon mine last week, in addition to further postponements for Barrick Gold’s big Pascua Lama Project were as bullish as can be.
Goldman was also openly signaling the rest of the market by notably revising their gold price forecast lower just ahead of the big down move, followed by more major banks revising their price forecasts lower.
Precious metal prices have now been falling overall or range bound for almost two years. Contrast the current situation with the historical September 2010 to April 2011 period, when 30 percent down moves occurred after a short covering rally as a speculative pile-on ensued.
This time, physical demand had been surging just before paper price declines led by the manipulated futures market. Also, hedge funds have also been piling in to short the market to a historic degree based on the negative technical picture.
In contrast, J. P. Morgan Chase et al have been slowly exiting or reducing their notable precious metal short position over the last month without a drop in the market’s open interest. Normally, heavy downside direction in price tends to be accompanied by a reduction in open interest.
Frankly, the most recent selloff seems like just an orchestrated opportunity for the big shorts to cover.
Record highs in equities have been seen recently, despite persistently soft economic data that misses one week after another virtually across the board. Complacency and universal bullishness seem to prevail, despite data indicating that little if any real economic recovery is actually underway.
Another notable occurrence has been the persistent referencing of CPI and employment numbers by authorities and the mainstream media, despite the obvious disconnect of this data from the reality faced by most people.
The last straw was the blatant early release of FOMC Meeting Minutes so that the markets could react when precious metal sentiment was already horrible. According to the latest FOMC Minutes, money creation via asset purchases by the Fed seems likely to subside later this year. Furthermore, London seems to be anticipating that Mark Carney's arrival at the Bank of England will see a more activist monetary policy stance arise in the UK too.
Nevertheless, the world's stock of fiat money is not contracting - quite the opposite, in fact. Japan has just launched another round of monetary stimulus on steroids, which will see the developed world's most indebted economy create a proposed $1.4 trillion in Yen in a bid to break the country free from depression and the perceived threat of deflation.
Once again, the same price pattern seems to be emerging. A massive dump in early overnight trading, followed by a margin increase pulls the rug out from under precious metals support as the market approaches key technical levels.
The panic selling feeds on itself as stops are triggered. The market moves much farther down than statistical or historical norms would suggest seems probable. This latest sharp decline, led by the Asian session, resulted in the biggest two day decline in the price of gold seen over the past thirty years.
From a technical perspective, the sharp move down seen a few days ago broke below the 38.2 percent retracement level of the big post-2008 gold rally from 681.40 to 1920.75, prompting traders to shoot for the 50 percent retracement level at 1301.07.
This 50 percent Fibo level now seems to offer the market both a target and a rallying point to buy gold ahead of. The substantial bounce already seen from the recent 1321.09 low just ahead of this objective indicates that the market’s desire to sell may well already have been satisfied.
Interestingly, it often seems to be the case that when market sentiment is apparently beyond repair, the seeds for a new rally are quietly being sown.
Sumber : Google
26 April 2013
Berita Semasa 26 April 2013 ...
Gold, Silver and the currency chronicles
The big shorts in the precious metals markets have acted as the governor, preventing the true expression of the paper currency value of real money for decades.
The Forex market may actually be seeing the beginning of the crack up boom where traditional currencies like silver and gold will naturally reassert themselves just as world monetary expansion begins to truly accelerate.
The big shorts in the precious metals markets have acted as the governor, preventing the true expression of the paper currency value of real money for decades.
It seems to be no coincidence that their market dominance was enabled in large part by the luxury of interested parties enjoying cheap access to the world’s main reserve currency.
It seems relevant to review some of the recent historical events and circumstances that have brought the currency market to its present tenuous state.
The first factor to consider is the credit bust. For too many years, going back to the 1990’s, the Fed’s and other major central banks’ policies have incentivized leveraged speculation. This has fostered a massive inflation in the global pool of speculative finance that created situation where too much market-based liquidity or “money” has been chasing too few risk assets.
The second factor is the massive rise in monetary stimulus programs. One result of these huge quantitative easing and bailout packages is that unprecedented monetary creation is largely bypassing real economies on its way to creating bubbles in global securities markets.
The third factor is the realty of unbalanced government budgets. The recent U.S. government budget released showed an increase in spending, as the much-publicized debt ceiling limit is repeatedly increased and adherence to it postponed. Nevertheless, that ceiling was an important - albeit probably symbolic - gesture that telegraphed to the rest of the world there would be some limits to the huge debt already accumulated by the United States.
Finally, the recent banking crisis in Cyprus has provided the world with a template for the first direct bail-in, where bank investors and depositors help pay for its failure to operate in a commercially viable manner.
Japan recently announced further radical stimulus measures to help stimulate its flagging economy. This increasing trend toward boosting the Japanese money supply has resulted in a sharply weaker Yen, which has declined from a historic high of 75.55 Yen to the Dollar seen in October 2011 to a recent high of 99.94 touched on April 11th of this year.
Another remarkable event has been the parabolic rise in Bitcoin observed over the last few years, only to see the electronic currency crash hard in extremely volatile recent trading. The crash came in the wake of some recent Denial of Service attacks on Bitcoin’s primary dealing website Mt. Gox that handles roughly 80 percent of its market.
The prices of gold and silver have also been hit hard enough to break a key 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level that in turn provoked further technical selling. The sharp sell-off in the precious metals has conveniently allowed J.P. Morgan Chase to exit some of its concentrated short positions.
Basically, the world's stock of fiat money is not contracting - quite the opposite, in fact. Japan has just launched its ‘stimulus on steroids plan’, which will see the developed world's most indebted economy create a proposed $1.4 trillion in Yen in a bid to break its economy free from depression and the questionable risk of deflation.
Nor is money creation in the West likely to subside, although earlier this month, the FOMC did hint that it might reduce its asset purchases later this year and that the committee was divided on the risks of continued super easy monetary policy.
Furthermore, current Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney's departure to head the Bank of England is expected to result in a trend toward more activist monetary policy in the UK too.
On the world’s forex market, recent weakness in the commodity currencies like the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars has been noted in the wake of the remarkable sell-off in the precious metals seen over the past week.
These currency moves tend to highlight recent U.S. Dollar strength, more so than being a reflection of the recent commodity downdraft. Nevertheless, recent events may actually represent the last gasp of King Dollar, as inflationary U.S. monetary and budgetary policies continue to chip away at the value foundation of the world’s primary reserve currency.
Precious metals now appear to have found good support, with retail physical sales reportedly booming at the lower prices, despite heavy downward pressure exerted on the paper futures markets.
The use of barter also seems to be increasing in popularity as a method of value exchange, as people turn away from fiat currencies in droves. In addition, the recent out in Bitcoin prices, has drawn considerable media attention to the use of that electronic currency as an alternative medium of exchange to fiat currency.
Falling commodity prices are simply another indication of failed policy that could well set the stage for a further acceleration in monetary expansion.
Speculative excess today encompasses all markets, with big money piled up on both the long and short sides of the financial markets.
Ultimately, it is the large shorts who seem to trigger the sell-offs in the commodities like silver and gold, probably so that they can cover their positions profitably.
Sumber : Google
25 April 2013
Berita Semasa 25 April 2013 ...
Gold recovers but pressured by outflows from ETFs
In India, gold prices have recovered to 25500 per 10 grams after having fallen to 24750 last week amidst increased demand for jewelleries and gold coins on falling prices in the wedding season which will run from April to June.
Gold prices have gained on Monday showing recovery from a sharp fall recently but concerns about outflow from exchange traded funds persist despite some brisk buying seen in India, the largest consumer of gold in the world.
In electronic trading, Comex Gold June has risen to $1421.2/Oz gaining $25.6 on Monday trade. " On daily charts,gold is showing an ascending triangel formation after a sharp fall and although recovery is not that sharp," according to Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Strategist at Commodity Online Group.
Near term support levels are seen at $1370, $1350 while resistance is seen at $1475, 1560 levels but RSI at 32.31 is above oversold positions and moving to neutral territory, he added.
Net ETP redemptions have reached 117 tonnes for the month to date, already surpassing February as the weakest month on record. Outflows have reached 277 tonnes for the year-to-date, which is almost equivalent to inflows in 2012 at 279 tonnes. At current price levels, 270 tonnes of gold holdings are cash negative, and in our view, continue to pose the largest downside risk to prices in the near term. Although net redemptions have not hit a daily record high (32 tonnes in January 2011), they have not shown any real signs of slowing down either, according to a weekly review by Barclays Research.�
Gold posted its biggest-ever daily loss in dollar terms last Monday, shocking veteran investors, who see gold as portfolio protection against inflation and other market risks. Prices sank to around $1,321 on April 16, its lowest in more than 2 years.
In India, gold prices have recovered to 25500 per 10 grams after having fallen to 24750 last week amidst increased demand for jewelleries and gold coins on falling prices in the wedding season which will run from April to June.
At India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold for June delivery has risen 0.94% to Rs 26293 10 grams on Monday trading. Technically, MCX gold remains weak with an RSI of 26.22 and MACD still in negative. However, on charts recovery trends are visible which can push prices to Rs 28,000 levels in the short to medium run, Sreekumar Raghavan added.
Sumber : Google
24 April 2013
Berita Semasa 24 April 2013 ...
Gold slump hits hard on John Paulson
According to reports, about $328 million was shaved from his net worth on this bet alone when gold dropped 4.1 per cent on Friday.
Gold's nosedive hit billionaire investor John Paulson the most as he lost more than $300 million on Friday.
According to reports, about $328 million was shaved from his net worth on this bet alone when gold dropped 4.1 per cent on Friday. Gold share classes account for about 85 per cent of the $9.5 billion Paulson has invested across his hedge funds.
Gold has entered a bear market after falling more than 20 per cent since August 2011, bringing more bad news for Paulson, who has struggled with poor returns for the past two years.
However, John Reade, a partner and gold strategist at Paulson & Co, said the recent decline in gold prices has not changed our long-term thesis as we started investing in gold at $900 in April 2009 and while it's down from its peak to $1500, it's up considerably from our cost.'
Gold tumbled and entered a bear market after falling more than 20 per cent since August 2011, bringing more bad news for Paulson, who has struggled with poor returns for the past two years.
For months Paulson's has stuck by his biggest single investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, where he owned 21.8 million shares at the end of the fourth quarter.
But clearly other investors became jittery in February when a 3.8 percent price drop was accompanied by an outflow of 70 tons, more than 5 percent of the ETF's holdings. This marked the biggest monthly outflow since 2004.
Sumber : Google
23 April 2013
Berita Semasa 23 April 2013 ...
Nepal Gold drops sharply despite short supply
Analysts said improvement in the US economy coupled with the Euro and Cyprus issues has led to investors shifting from gold to equities and other investment avenues.
In line with global trends, Gold prices dropped sharply in Nepal when markets opened Monday.
A tola of gold dropped by Nepal Rs 2,300 in early trade to Rs 54,000 as investors around the world have been pulling out of gold and investing on property.
Analysts said improvement in the US economy coupled with the Euro and Cyprus issues has led to investors shifting from gold to equities and other investment avenues.
According to officials of Federation of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers Associations, the drop in price will not lead to drastic rise in demand for the yellow metal as customers will be on wait and see mood expecting further drop in prices.
Nepal's daily demand for gold stands at around 35 kg, according to the federation. But as the wedding season has started, daily demand will increase by another 5-10 kg.
Though gold price is expected to come down, customers willing to buy gold bars or coins have no reason to cheer about. Traders are not selling gold bars and coins, citing shortage of gold to meet demand for jewelries.
Most of the traders are not selling gold bars or coins because gold is in short supply in the domestic market. The mismatch between demand and supply has crated this situation, Association said.
Sumber : Google
22 April 2013
Berita Semasa 22 April 2013 ...
Gold plunge could be as low as $880 an ounce
Other analysts said the gold price could bounce back up just as quickly as it fell and critical of traders and investors who saw the gold price as a commodity that would only go up, expecting it to hit $2,000.
The Gold plunge is likely to last for some time as investors are moving away from the precious metals to equities after they were hit further Monday.
Analysts said the speed of the fall has surprised market watchers, with gold trading below $1,450 an ounce on Monday and 24 per cent below its record highs of 2011, putting it in bear territory.
Some analysts predicts the price will fall by at least one third to $1,000 an ounce and as low as $880.
They attributed gold's plunge to a scenario in which loose monetary policy of central banks around the globe and low interest rates and a weak US currency was coming to an end.
During a 12-year run of gains until this year, gold had been an investment for all seasons: when there was economic growth it was a hedge against inflation, when growth was going backwards it was a safe haven.
The explanations and rumors for why the price of gold is falling ranged from positive views about the US economy sparking an end to monetary stimulus to consortium of bullion or central banks artificially pushing the price down and selling in large volumes to China.
However, other analysts said the gold price could bounce back up just as quickly as it fell and critical of traders and investors who saw the gold price as a commodity that would only go up, expecting it to hit $2,000.
Sumber : Google
21 April 2013
Berita Semasa 21 April 2013 ...
India Q1 Gold imports drop 24% to 200 tons
In India, buying has also been hit by a falling rupee, which makes domestic gold more expensive than its global counterpart, which is priced in dollars.
World's largest gold consumer India's imports of the metal dropped sharply during the first three months of this year.
According to leading gold trade body Bombay Bullion Association, country's gold imports have fallen nearly 24% to 200 tons in the first quarter and probably dropped at the same pace in April.
In India, buying has also been hit by a falling rupee, which makes domestic gold more expensive than its global counterpart, which is priced in dollars.
Indian gold futures hit Rs 27,100 per 10 grams on Monday, their lowest level since December 31, 2011 and about 17% down from their peak of Rs 32,464 struck in November last year.
Internationally, investors have dumped gold and flocked to equity markets in recent weeks as Cyprus plans to sell gold reserves to raise around 400 million euros. That has raised concerns that other indebted euro zone countries could follow suit.
Even escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula have failed to burnish gold's safe-haven appeal.
India raised import duty by 50% to curb imports, which helped push the current account deficit to a record 6.7 % of gross domestic product in the December quarter.
Analysts said ahead of the tax increase in January,India's gold imports surged 23% year-on-year as buyers stocked up. But global and domestic prices have fallen as much as 15% since then, and gold sank to a two-year low on Monday.
Sumber : Google
20 April 2013
Berita Semasa 20 April 2013 ...
India to receive only conflict-free Gold from Dubai
Dubai is one of the major gold suppliers to India and is also a hub for conflict gold, illegally mined by rebel outfits in Africa and sold clandestinely to buyers across the globe
World's largest gold consumer India continued it's efforts to keep away from conflict gold and got an assurance from Dubai in this regard.
According to Indian trade body Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), Multi media Commodities Centre Authority (DMCC), has assured it that it will not export "conflict gold" to India.
DMCC said Dubai has come up with norms to ensure that only "responsible gold" is exported to other nations.
The assurance was given to GJEPC by DMCC during the recently concluded Dubai Precious Metals Conference. GJEPC has requested the Reserve Bank to permit gold only from refineries accredited to the London Bullion Market Association.
Dubai is one of the major gold suppliers to India and is also a hub for conflict gold, illegally mined by rebel outfits in Africa and sold clandestinely to buyers across the globe, thus enabling them to finance their wars against establishments.
Analysts said conflict gold is the greatest generator of revenue for armed groups operating and committing mass atrocities in eastern parts of Congo. In 15 major mines and other smaller mines across the region, children work in life threatening conditions to extract gold.
The move comes at a time when members of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), one of the largest buyers of Indian jewellery, have alleged that Indian jewellers are using conflict gold in their operations.
There are 34 OECD countries which include the US, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. Nearly $70 billion worth of gold was traded through Dubai during 2012.
India imports nearly 200 tonne of gold from Dubai. In 2012, India imported 864 tonne of gold for meeting its domestic consumption and for exporting to the world market in value-added forms.
Sumber : Google
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